Seminar: Katarina Kosovelj: Overview of methods for the computation of initial perturbations for ensemble forecasting

Thursday, 17th March 2016, 13:00
Room F6, 1st floor, FMF, Jadranska 19, Ljubljana

Meteorology Group will host a seminar presented by Katarina Kosovelj. The seminar will be in English. Everyone is kindly invited.

Abstract:

A good description of initial uncertainty is crucial for successful ensemble forecasting. Several techniques exist for the computation of initial perturbations. They differ in complexity and performance.
In this seminar I will review several common techniques used in operational ensemble forecasting and research. The focus of presentation will be on mathematical principles and physical reasoning behind them.
At the end I will also discuss challenges one is facing when trying to create a new technique for initial ensemble perturbations.